Italy's largest banking group, Intesa Sanpaolo, has raised its 2026 net profit outlook to well above €10 billion after reporting record earnings for the first nine months of the year. The upgraded guidance comes as the lender advances its proposed acquisition of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), a transaction that could reshape competition across Italy's banking and financial services sectors.
In results published on November 3, 2026, Intesa reported net income of €8.199 billion for the first nine months, an increase of 8.1% compared with €7.588 billion in the same period of 2025. Third-quarter net income reached €2.645 billion, compared with €2.372 billion a year earlier.
The bank said the stronger performance reflected growth across its revenue sources, including net interest income, commissions and insurance business. It also highlighted cost discipline and its position in wealth management and financial advisory services.
Chief Executive Carlo Messina said the results allowed the group to raise its full-year earnings outlook despite an almost €1 billion impact from Italy's 2026 Budget Law. [1][2]
Record earnings support upgraded guidance
Intesa's nine-month performance included growth in several key operating areas.
Operating income increased by 5% year-on-year, while operating costs declined by 1.3%. Gross income reached €12.637 billion, up 9.4% from the first nine months of 2025.
Net interest income totalled €11.366 billion, an increase of 2.3%. Net fee and commission income rose 5.2% to €7.718 billion, while income from insurance business increased 5.8% to €1.451 billion.
These figures indicate that the bank's earnings growth was not dependent on a single revenue source. Its wealth management, advisory, insurance and traditional lending activities all contributed to the reported performance.
The cost-to-income ratio stood at 36.7%, reflecting the relationship between operating expenses and income. Intesa also reported an annualised return on equity of 21% and return on tangible equity of 26%.
Following the results, management upgraded its 2026 net income outlook to well above €10 billion. The bank also expects full-year net interest income to exceed €15 billion, supported by its revenue outlook and lending activities. [1]
Shareholder distributions and capital position
Intesa also highlighted its capital distribution plans.
For the first nine months of 2026, the bank accrued €7.8 billion for distribution to shareholders. This included €6.1 billion in cash dividends, with €3.8 billion scheduled as an interim dividend in November.
In addition, the bank completed a €2.3 billion share buyback in October.
The interim dividend is set at €0.22 per ordinary share before tax, with payment scheduled for November 25, 2026, subject to the stated record-date and payment arrangements.
The bank reported a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 13.1% after deducting the amount accrued for distribution. It also reported a ratio of approximately 13.8% when including a benefit of around 70 basis points from deferred tax asset absorption.
CET1 is a key measure of a bank's ability to absorb financial losses using its highest-quality capital. The two ratios should not be presented as interchangeable because they reflect different treatments of the deferred tax asset benefit.
These capital and distribution figures are relevant as Intesa pursues a major acquisition while continuing its shareholder-return programme. [1]
Intesa advances its proposed MPS acquisition
Alongside the earnings announcement, Intesa's proposed takeover of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena remains a major development for the Italian banking sector.
Intesa announced its voluntary public tender and exchange offer, known by its Italian abbreviation OPAS, on June 8, 2026. The proposal covers MPS ordinary shares and combines newly issued Intesa shares with a cash payment.
Under the original announced terms, shareholders tendering MPS shares would receive 1.6 newly issued Intesa shares and €1 in cash for every MPS share, subject to the subsequent adjustments and offer documentation.
The offer was initially presented with an implied total consideration of approximately €30.6 billion. The transaction is intended to bring MPS under Intesa's control and expand the combined group's position in retail banking, corporate banking, wealth management and other financial services.
Intesa has argued that the combination would create opportunities to increase scale and accelerate its business plan. These are the acquiring bank's stated expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. [3]
ECB authorisation and Delfin commitment
The regulatory process reached an important milestone in late October.
Intesa announced on October 27 that it had received prior authorisation from the European Central Bank for the acquisition of control of MPS and certain related subsidiaries and investments.
On October 28, the bank confirmed that it had received the remaining prior authorisations required under the applicable sector regulatory framework. This meant that the relevant sector-approval condition identified by Intesa for the offer had been fulfilled.
Another important development involved Delfin, the investment holding company associated with the Del Vecchio family.
On October 4, Intesa disclosed that Delfin, which held approximately 17.6% of MPS, had undertaken to tender its shares to the offer under the stated terms.
The commitment is significant because it represents support from a major MPS shareholder. However, it does not mean that Delfin's shares have already been transferred or that Intesa has completed the acquisition.
The offer still needs to progress through the remaining regulatory and market procedures. [4][5]
Antitrust review remains a major step
Despite the supervisory authorisations, the MPS transaction has not yet been completed.
Italy's competition authority, the Autorità Garante della Concorrenza e del Mercato (AGCM), opened an investigation in September to assess the potential effects of the proposed acquisition on competition in banking and insurance markets.
The review covers a range of local and national markets. This is important because a combination of two large banking groups could affect market concentration, branch networks, customer choice and competition in related financial services.
On November 3, Reuters reported that Intesa CEO Carlo Messina was confident about the expected antitrust decision. He said the bank expected the outcome to be economically consistent with its proposal.
The report also said the competition authority's decision was expected by the end of November. Intesa planned to launch the tender phase during the week of November 23, subject to approval of the offer document by Italy's markets regulator, Consob.
These are expected dates, not completed regulatory decisions. Any conditions or remedies imposed by authorities could influence the transaction's implementation. [6][7]
What the transaction could mean for Italian banking
If completed, the proposed acquisition would bring two major Italian banking groups under a single ownership structure.
For Intesa, the deal could expand its customer base and strengthen its presence across banking, wealth management and financial services. For MPS, it would mark another major stage in the bank's restructuring and ownership history.
However, the scale of the proposed combination also makes competition oversight important. Regulators will need to assess whether the transaction could reduce competition in particular markets and whether any conditions are necessary.
The final impact will depend on the outcome of the regulatory reviews, shareholder participation and the terms under which the offer proceeds.
What to watch next
The next milestones include Consob's review of the offer document, the Italian competition authority's decision and the expected start of the tender period.
Investors will also monitor whether the offer attracts sufficient shareholder participation to meet its ownership threshold and whether regulators require conditions that affect the proposed integration.
For now, Intesa Sanpaolo's record earnings and upgraded guidance provide a separate financial development from the still-pending MPS transaction.
The bank has strengthened its 2026 profit outlook, while its proposed acquisition remains subject to the remaining regulatory process. The two developments together make Intesa one of the central institutions to watch in Italy's banking sector during the final months of 2026.
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